lagged consensus forecast about the period being forecast. We find that all three biases are present in the Survey of … forecast to form expectations is a reasonable thing to do if a forecaster is not able to come up with fully rational …

-cycle states. We show that forecasts for recessions are subject to a large negative systematic forecast error (forecasters … overestimate growth), while forecasts for recoveries are subject to a positive systematic forecast error. Forecasts made for … expansions have, if anything, a small systematic forecast error for large forecast horizons. When we link information about the …

the business survey, i.e. the survey replies by the price-setters themselves, contributes most to these forecast …