This paper compares the different dynamics of the simple sum monetary aggregates and the Divisia monetary aggregate indexes over time, over the business cycle, and across high and low inflation and interest rate phases. Although traditional comparisons of the series sometimes suggest that simple...

Hidden Markov model (HMM) is a statistical signal prediction model, which has been widely used to predict economic regimes and stock prices. In this paper, we introduce the application ofHMMin trading stocks (with S&P 500 index being an example) based on the stock price predictions. The...

Unlike passive management, where investors almost do not buy and sell securities, active management involves a set of trading rules that govern investment decisions regarding mainly market timing. In this paper, we take the basics of active management and the two fund separation approach, to...