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potential output overestimated) before the recent crisis. It is fair to say that the employed estimation techniques failed to … into account in conventional methods for the estimation of potential output and the output gap. Since both, potential …
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trend from cycle via Bayesian estimation of a New Keynesian model, augmented with an unobserved components model for output …
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This paper proposes a multi-level dynamic factor model to identify common components in output gap estimates. We pool multiple output gap estimates for 157 countries and decompose them into one global, eight regional, and 157 country-specific cycles. Our approach easily deals with mixed...
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