We develop a quantitative theory of repeated political transitions driven by revolts and reforms. In the model, the … that looks remarkably close to the data, replicating the empirical shape of transition hazards, the frequency of revolts … relative to reforms, the distribution of newly established regime types after revolts and reforms, and the unconditional …

We develop a theory of political transitions inspired in part by the experiences of Western Europe and Latin America …. Nondemocratic societies are controlled by a rich elite. The initially disenfranchised poor can contest power by threatening social … unrest or revolution and this may force the elite to democratize. Democracy may not consolidate because it is more …