The conduct of monetary policy is often characterised by either “hawks versus doves” or “rules versus discretion”. We use a metric to evaluate monetary policy rules by calculating quadratic loss ratios, the (inflation plus unemployment) loss in high deviations periods divided by the loss...

This paper investigates whether uncertainty about economic policy plays a role in shaping the credibility and reputation of the central bank in the eyes of the general public. In particular, we look at the effect of policy uncertainty for the dynamics of citizens' opinion, being trust,...

This paper studies the informational content of publicly given speeches of FOMC members with a focus on financial stability, from 1997 to 2018. We document that presidents of Federal Reserve Banks spoke more than Board members around and after the financial crisis, and exhibit more variation in...

Some authors argue that the delayed overshooting puzzle often found in the literature is an artifact of improper identification of monetary policy shocks, like Cholesky ordering. We investigate this claim by estimating the dynamic effect of monetary policy shocks on exchange rate using various...

Theory and evidence suggest that in an environment of well-anchored expectations, temporary economic news or shocks should not affect agents' expectations of inflation in the long term. Our estimated structural VARs show that both long- and short-term inflation expectations are sensitive to...

Narrative records in US newspapers reveal that about 70 percent of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members who served during the last 55 years are perceived to have had persistent policy preferences over time, as either inflation-fighting hawks or growth-promoting doves. The rest are...

Narrative records in US newspapers reveal that about 70 percent of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members who served during the last 55 years are perceived to have had persistent policy preferences over time, as either inflation-fighting hawks or growth-promoting doves. The rest are...

This paper studies the informational content of speeches of Fed officials, focusing on financial stability, from 1997 to 2018. We construct indicators that measure the intensity and tone of this topic for both Governors and Fed presidents. When added to a standard forward-looking Taylor rule, a...

This paper examines the importance of central bank communication in ensuring the effectiveness of monetary policy and in underpinning the credibility, accountability and legitimacy of independent central banks. It documents how communication has become a monetary policy tool in itself; one...

Theory and evidence suggest that in an environment of well-anchored expectations, temporary news or shocks to economic variables, should not affect agents' expectations of inflation in the long term. Our estimated structural VARs show that both long- and short-term inflation expectations are...