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I investigate the causes of the high inflation Argentina experienced from 2007 to 2015. To do so, I estimate the … patterns in Argentina that can explain the high inflation observed during the analyzed years. First of all, Argentinean … Argentina a positive and increasing output gap since 2007, which was highly correlated with the inflation rate. Last, a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012835593
We study how domestic and global output gaps affect CPI inflation. We use a New-Keynesian Phillips curve framework …1-2017Q4 period. We find broadly that both global and domestic output gaps are significant drivers of inflation both in … output gaps on inflation. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011929651
We incorporate adaptive learning-based inflation expectations in an Unobserved Components model in order to study the … link between inflation and the output gap. The forward-looking New Keynesian Phillips curve serves as the backbone for … modeling inflation dynamics. We find that learning based inflation forecasts not only shadow survey expectations in the pre …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013234838
three inflation will increase (decrease) in the next quarter and three times out of five it will increase (decrease) the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014112841
This paper examines the relationship between the output gap and inflation in Japan by estimating Phillips curves and … testing for changes since the advent of low inflation and/or the stabilisation of the rate of change of inflation. The work … provides empirical support for the hypothesis of a change in the relationship between output and inflation in an environment of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012444474
This study seeks to examine the stability of the Phillips Curve in Nigeria, as well as to ascertain the applicability of the popular Lucas Critique to the Phillips Curve in Nigeria. Using quarterly data from 1990Q1 to 2018Q3, the model is estimated with robust OLS that accounts for possible...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013348461
gap and inflation for the Turkish economy using data from 2002:01 to 2021:09. First, it analyses the cointegration by …. The results also show asymmetric causality running from positive (negative) output gap to positive (negative) inflation … shock, and running from negative inflation shock to negative output gap shock. The overall findings indicate the importance …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014516257
, to assess the Phillips curve's ability to explain inflation dynamics over a wide variety of circumstances, over the 150 … years of the country's history. In Italy, the relation linking inflation with the cyclical situation in the economy emerged …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013084368
inflation volatility.Also, causality tests results indicate that changes in the exchangerate, output gap volatility, and output … gap will have permanent andtemporary causal effects on inflation volatility. The policymakersshould carefully consider … these results to implement appropriatepolicies to reduce inflation volatility. The finding that the shocks areof temporary …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014312187
The COVID-19 crisis has affected economic sectors very heterogeneously, with possible risks for permanent losses in some sectors. This paper presents a sectoral-level, bottom- up method to estimate euro area potential outputin order to assess the impact of the crisis on it. The estimates are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013367033