This paper analyzes the role of complexity in production on the level of output and on its rate of growth. We develop an endogenous growth model with human capital accumulation, where increased complexity could exert either a positive or a negative effect on the level of output but always a...

We analyze the relationship between food security and trade, focusing on food importers' exposure to sudden market failures from relying on a narrow range of international suppliers. We compute a bilateral import penetration index (BIPI), which gauges the degree to which a country depends on...

There is no escaping Japan's competition in the world markets for goods, particularly in the automotive and electronics industries. Countries exporting to these markets are bound to feel the competitive pressure from a marked fall in the value of the yen. However, while some exporters will be...

The Asian Development Outlook (ADO) provides growth and inflation forecasts for more than 40 economies in the region. This paper assesses the accuracy of those forecasts against actual outcomes for the years from 2008 to 2011. The World Economic Outlook (WEO) forecasts by the International...

Contingent claims analysis applied to Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, the Republic of Korea, and Thailand shows no particular vulnerability to sovereign debt distress during recent years. However, the highly volatile "distance to distress" measure suggests that any of these countries may...

Total debt in the People's Republic of China has increased significantly in recent years, mostly on account of nonfinancial corporate debt. Earning and the financial performance of corporate firms have weakened, and so has the asset quality of the financial sector. This paper assesses the...

Since the early 1990s, India has embarked on economic reforms that have progressively opened up the country to international trade. This paper analyzes the effects of reform on India's trading structure from 1990 to 2006. It computes comparative advantage indicators on the basis of disaggregated...

This paper calculates the decline in costs involving merchandise trade between the People's Republic of China (PRC) and India during the period 1980-2008. Drawing from the recent literature, a comprehensive measure of trade costs is derived from a theory-founded gravity model of international...