This paper documents the suite of models used by Norges Bank to estimate the output gap. The models are estimated using data on GDP, unemployment, inflation, wages, investment, house prices and credit. We evaluate the estimated output gap series in terms of its forecasting properties, its...

This paper documents a set of models used by Norges Bank in estimating the output gap. The models take into account developments in key cyclical indicators such as GDP, unemployment, inflation, wage growth, investment, house prices and credit growth. As the output gap cannot be observed, there...

I denne artikkelen dokumenteres et sett av modeller som Norges Bank benytter i vurderingen av produksjonsgapet. Modellene tar hensyn til utviklingen i sentrale konjunkturindikatorer som BNP, arbeidsledighet, inflasjon, lønnsvekst, investeringer, boligpriser og kredittvekst. Ettersom...

Proponemos un nuevo esquema de identificación VAR que nos permite separar perturbaciones migratorias de otras perturbaciones macroeconómicas. La identificación se logra imponiendo restricciones de signo a datos noruegos para el período I TR 1990-II TR 2014. La disponibilidad de series...

In this paper we extend the standard Blanchard-Quah decomposition to enable fluctuations in aggregate demand to have a long-run impact on the productive capacity of the economy through hysteresis effects. These demand shocks are found to be quantitatively important in the US, in particular if...

In this paper, we identify demand shocks that can have a permanent effect on output through hysteresis effects. We call these shocks permanent demand shocks. They are found to be quantitatively important in the United States, in particular when the sample includes the Great Recession. Recessions...

We propose a new VAR identification scheme that enables us to disentangle immigration shocks from other macroeconomic shocks. Identification is achieved by imposing sign restrictions on Norwegian data over the period 1990Q1 - 2014Q2. The availability of a quarterly series for net immigration is...

We propose a new VAR identification scheme that enables us to disentangle immigration shocks from other macroeconomic shocks. Identification is achieved by imposing sign restrictions on Norwegian data over the period 1990Q1 - 2014Q2. The availability of a quarterly series for net immigration is...