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This paper evaluates the predictive out-of-sample forecasting properties of six different economic uncertainty variables for both growth in aggregate M2 and growth in household-sector M2 in the U.S. using data between 1971m1 and 2014m12. The core contention is that economic uncertainty improves...
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systematic risk is highly nonlinear in extreme scenarios-especially during the subprime crisis. We find that countercyclical …-traditional risk premia by deliberately increasing their systematic risk while the later focus more on minimizing risk. Our results … suggest that the hedge fund strategies' betas respond more to illiquidity uncertainty than to illiquidity risk during crises …
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Despite well-known shortcomings as a risk measure, Value-at-Risk (VaR) is still the industry and regulatory standard … for the calculation of risk capital in banking and insurance. This paper is concerned with the numerical estimation of the … VaR for a portfolio position as a function of different dependence scenarios on the factors of the portfolio. Besides …
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