standard deviation of individual forecasts around the median Consensus Forecast as proxy for forecast uncertainty. Our sample … react significantly to inflation forecast uncertainty by reducing their policy rates in times of higher inflation … forecast uncertainty. We conclude with some implications for optimal monetary policy rules and central bank watchers …

Macroeconomic risk assessments play an important role in the forecasts of many institutions. A risk forecast is related … to the potential asymmetry of the forecast density. In this work, we investigate how the optimality of such risk … possible. In general, tests for macroeconomic risk forecast optimality tend to have at best moderate power given the …

present a model in which forecast accuracy and timing are affected by information uncertainty stemming from (i) the presence … skills, all the more so the larger the uncertainty about the forecast bias … of forecast bias and (ii) investors' limited capability to adjust to this bias. We assume that the presence of a bias is …

This study examines the sources of uncertainty in predicting government tax revenues in Israel. In the first stage, we … basis of available information at the time the budget is prepared; we find that the forecast error based is six times … greater than the error based on ex-post projection. These results imply that the forecast error predominantly reflects …

Risk forecasting is crucial for informed investment decision-making. Moreover, the salience of investment risk … increases during economically uncertain times. In this paper, we study how sell-side analysts form expectations of firm risk …, under different macroeconomic conditions (low versus high uncertainty) and by distinguishing between quantitative and …