-specific uncertainty as firms’ absolute forecast errors derived from survey data of German manufacturing firms over 2007–2011. In line with …This paper analyzes how firm-specific uncertainty affects firms’ propensity to invest. We measure firm … the literature, our empirical findings reveal a negative impact of firm-specific uncertainty on investment. However …

-level uncertainty and imperfect information over their life cycle. We find that firms make non-negligible and positively correlated … forecast errors. However, they make more precise forecasts and less correlated forecast errors when they become more … informed. Moreover, young firms tend to wait long before entering or exiting the market faced with high uncertainty about their …

) to estimate forecast uncertainty, shocks and discord using information framework, and compare these with moment … forecast means, countercyclical, and raises uncertainty. Using standard vector auto-regression analysis, we confirm that … significantly from normality. Even though the Shannon entropy is more inclusive of different facets of a forecast density, we find …

historical periods in which uncertainty and risk premia were elevated because of news shocks. … framework, combined with parameter learning, features rich history-dependent uncertainty dynamics. We show that bad news that … greatly amplified when agents have a preference for early resolution of uncertainty. We leverage survey recession probability …

(ii) deliver a significantly improved match between ex ante and ex post forecast uncertainty. According to our estimates … ante variances often produce squared forecast errors that are much larger on average. In this paper, we document the novel …, uncertainty about inflation, output growth and unemployment in the U.S. and the Euro area is higher after correcting for the …

-year VIX and our survey-based measure of firm-level uncertainty at a one-year forecast horizon doubled at the onset of the …We examine several measures of uncertainty to make five points. First, equity market traders and executives at … nonfinancial firms have shared similar assessments about one-year-ahead uncertainty since the pandemic struck. Both the one …