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Tourism products, such as unfilled airline seats, unoccupied hotel rooms, and unused facilities, cannot be stocked because of their perishable nature (Archer 1987). Therefore, accurately forecasting demand, usually measured by the number of tourist arrivals, is essential in assisting managerial,...
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the loss of accuracy, and demonstrate how it works through a case of the sales forecast. Concretely, we first build an … interpretable forecasting model by incorporating the key influencing factors into the original black-box model, which provides …
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networks) is useful for predicting future values of nine macroeconomic variables. We use a variety of out-of-sample forecast …-based model selection criteria, including forecast error measures and forecast direction accuracy. Ex-ante or real …
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In many macroeconomic forecasting applications factor models are used to cope with large datasets. This study aligns variational autoencoders with macroeconomic factor modeling and proposes an extension to adapt this framework for forecasting exercises. Variational autoencoders are well suited...
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I evaluate whether incorporating sub-national trends improves macroeconomic fore-casting accuracy in a deep machine learning framework. Specifically, I adopt a computer vision setting by transforming U.S. economic data into a ‘video’ series of geographic ‘images’ and utilizing a...
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