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The momentum of the expansion of the German economy is strong. Unchanged from our winter and spring forecasts, we … overheating of the German economy is at the horizon. Against this background, the downward risks for the economy increase. Overall …, the German economy will expand on a broad front. Exports are expected to accelerate further, owing to an upswing of the …
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We investigate the predictive power of several leading indicators in order to forecast industrial production in Germany … indicators. We show that the best set of predictors, within and between categories, changes over time and depends on the forecast …
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avenue to measure and forecast regional economic activity. …
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A reflection on the lackluster growth over the decade since the Global Financial Crisis has renewed interest in preventative measures for a long-standing problem. Advances in machine learning algorithms during this period present promising forecasting solutions. In this context, the paper...
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Economic policies are generally formulated on the basis of data available in real time, which might subsequently be revised. Implicitly, the possibility of data revisions creates an element of uncertainty around the very same data driving policy decisions. Given that such uncertainty could be...
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