We consider which labor market variables are the most informative for estimating and nowcasting the US output gap using a multivariate trend-cycle decomposition. Although the unemployment rate clearly contains important cyclical information, it also appears to reflect more persistent movements...

What is the role of trade to both expedite growth and to provide the transformative innovations needed in our post-Pandemic, post-Brexit, unstable world? Using historical examples to demonstrate how complex forces interplay into virtuous or vicious cycles of cumulative causation, Simmons and...