This paper provides a critical review of the popular Carlson–Parkin (CP) quantification method using household-level data from the University of Michigan’s Survey of Consumers. We find strong evidence against the threshold constancy, symmetry, homogeneity, and overall unbiasedness...

We combine the probability forecasts of a real GDP decline from the US Survey of Professional Forecasters, after trimming the forecasts that do not have “value”, as measured by the Kuiper Skill Score and in the sense of Merton (1981). For this purpose, we use a simple test to evaluate the...