equilibrium exists. We study the response differences in the dynamics of the inflation rate to changes in the mean and variance of … the Great Recession, in which the effects of greater model uncertainty may have played a role in keeping inflation rates …

This paper presents a framework for quantifying uncertainty around point forecasts for GDP, inflation and house prices …

The purpose of the paper is to introduce the framework for decomposing the forecast of headline inflation, obtained by … inflation forecast, with relatively good fit of equations for food and domestic oil prices. This model serves as satellite model … core inflation. The model for inflation decomposition is a small structural model, set up in state space framework. Kalman …

horizon-dependent biases and lower accuracy than simple unconditional uncertainty forecasts. We examine the inflation …