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Reverse Bayesianism : revising beliefs in light of unforeseen events
Becker, Christoph; Melkonyan, Tigran A.; Proto, Eugenio; … - 2020
Bayesian Updating is the dominant theory of learning in economics. The theory is silent about how individuals react to … events that were previously unforeseeable or unforeseen. Recent theoretical literature has put forth axiomatic frameworks to …", which ensures that the old information is used correctly after an unforeseen event materializes. We find that participants …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012307444
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Reverse Bayesianism : revising beliefs in light of unforeseen events
Becker, Christoph; Melkonyan, Tigran A.; Proto, Eugenio; … - 2020
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012373213
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Reverse Bayesianism: Revising Beliefs in Light of Unforeseen Events
Becker, Christoph K.; Melkonyan, Tigran; Proto, Eugenio; … - 2020
Bayesian Updating is the dominant theory of learning in economics. The theory is silent about how individuals react to … events that were previously unforeseeable or unforeseen. Recent theoretical literature has put forth axiomatic frameworks to …", which ensures that the old information is used correctly after an unforeseen event materializes. We find that participants …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012322620
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Reverse Bayesianism: Revising Beliefs in Light of Unforeseen Events
Becker, Christoph K.; Melkonyan, Tigran; Proto, Eugenio; … - 2020
Bayesian Updating is the dominant theory of learning in economics. The theory is silent about how individuals react to … events that were previously unforeseeable or unforeseen. Recent theoretical literature has put forth axiomatic frameworks to …”, which ensures that the old information is used correctly after an unforeseen event materializes. We find that participants …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012425568
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Belief updating: does the 'good-news, bad-news' asymmetry extend to purely financial domains?
Barron, Kai - 2016
Bayes' statistical rule remains the status quo for modeling belief updating in both normative and descriptive models of behavior under uncertainty. Recent research has questioned the use of Bayes' rule in descriptive models of behavior, presenting evidence that people overweight 'good news'...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011542204
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Awareness of unawareness : a theory of decision making in the face of ignorance
Karni, Edi; Vierø, Marie-Louise - 2014
behavior. This paper models this awareness of unawareness and axiomatizes a probabilistic sophisticated representation of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010246087
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Reverse Bayesianism and act independence
Chakravarty, Surajeet; Kelsey, David; Teitelbaum, Joshua C. - 2022
Karni and Vierø (2013) propose a model of belief revision under growing awareness- reverse Bayesianism- which posits that as a person becomes aware of new acts, conse- quences, or act-consequence links, she revises her beliefs over an expanded state space in a way that preserves the relative...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012938976
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Operationalizing reverse Bayesianism
Chakravarty, Surajeet; Kelsey, David; Teitelbaum, Joshua C. - 2020 - Draft: May 14, 2020
Karni and Viero (2013) propose a model of belief revision under growing awareness reverse Bayesianism which posits that as a person becomes aware of new acts, consequences, or act-consequence links, she revises her beliefs over an expanded state space in a way that preserves the relative...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012320173
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Reverse Bayesianism : Revising Beliefs in Light of Unforeseen Events
Becker, Christoph K.; Melkonyan, Tigran; Proto, Eugenio; … - 2021
Bayesian Updating is the dominant theory of learning in economics. The theory is silent about how individuals react to … events that were previously unforeseeable or unforeseen. Recent theoretical literature has put forth axiomatic frameworks to …", which ensures that the old information is used correctly after an unforeseen event materializes. We find that participants …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013315077
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Reverse Bayesianism : Revising Beliefs in Light of Unforeseen Events
Becker, Christoph K.; Melkonyan, Tigran; Proto, Eugenio; … - 2021
Bayesian updating is the dominant theory of learning. However, the theory is silent about how individuals react to … events that were previously unforeseeable or unforeseen. Building on a recently developed axiomatic framework to analyze such … prior beliefs remain unchanged after an unforeseen event materializes. We develop two experiments that entail unforeseen …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013227484