The central analysis of this research paper is an identification of most the reliable economic indicators that could provide signals for the approaching financial distress in the world economies; these warnings should certainly contribute to construction of the effective global warning system...

This paper introduces financial cycle indexes and uses them in an early warning exercise. The indexes are based on the traditional theory of business cycles. Juglar cycles are deduced from a number of financial indicators, categorized as leading and lagging indicators, and aggregated into...