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Intro; Title page; Table of Contents; Copyright; List of Figures; List of Tables; Preface; Chapter 1. Linear Regression Model; Abstract; 1.1 Inference in Linear Regression Models; 1.2 Testing for Violations of the Linear Regression Framework; 1.3 Specifying the Regressors; 1.4 Issues With...
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We use monthly data on the US riskless yield curve for a 1982-2015 sample to show that mixing simple regime switching dynamics with Nelson-Siegel factor forecasts from time series models extended to encompass variables that summarize the state of monetary policy, leads to superior predictive...
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We analyze the recursive, out-of-sample performance of asset allocation decisions based on financial ratio-predictability under single-state linear and regime-switching models. We adopt both a statistical perspective to analyze whether models based on the dividend-price, earning-price, and...
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This paper systematically investigates the sources of differential out-of-sample predictive accuracy of heuristic frameworks based on internet search frequencies and a large set of econometric models. The volume of internet searches helps gauge the degree of investors' time-varying interest in...
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We investigate the long-run equilibrium relationship between credit default swap (CDS) premia and bond spreads for 65 U.S. corporate entities and 6 major banks over the period April 2011 – February 2018. Standard regression methods reveal that in 40 out of 71 entities, the two series fail to...
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