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We use a time-varying parameter dynamic factor model with stochastic volatility (DFM-TV-SV) estimated using Bayesian methods to disentangle the relative importance of the common component in FHFA house price movements from state-specific shocks, over the quarterly period of 1975Q2 to 2017Q4. We...
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We introduce a novel quantitative methodology to detect real estate bubbles and forecast their critical end time, which … calibration with respect to bootstrapped residuals. We make three main contributions to the literature of real estate bubbles … critical times of historical housing price bubbles in the U.S., Hong Kong, U.K. and Canada. Second, the LPPLS detection methods …
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