”bubbles”. In this paper, we provide a model-free test of rational bubbles and we apply it to the U.S. housing market. Based on …

unsustainable, there is uncertainty as to the sustainability of the level of house prices. This article applies asset-pricing theory …

the case of imperfect knowledge and learning about the persistence of exogenous shocks. I evaluate the performance of the … model against the last 40 years of key U.S. macroeconomic data. Bayesian comparison strongly favors the model with learning … over the baseline case with perfect knowledge, although additional assumptions about the learning process may be necessary …