We propose simple parametric and nonparametric bootstrap methods for estimating the prediction mean square error (PMSE) of state vector predictors that use estimated model parameters. As is well known, substituting the model parameters by their estimates in the theoretical PMSE expression that...

Election polls, also called election surveys, have been under severe criticism because of apparent gaps between their outcomes and election results. In this article, we survey election poll performance in the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, and Israel and discuss the current state of the...

We consider a model-dependent approach for multi-level modelling that accounts for informative probability sampling of first- and lower-level population units. The proposed approach consists of first extracting the hierarchical model holding for the sample data given the selected sample, as a...

I consider estimation and seasonal adjustment of population means based on rotating panel surveys carried out at regular time intervals. The analysis uses a dynamic structural model that assumes a decomposition of the mean into a trend-level component and a seasonal component. The model accounts...