In this paper, we use the Wall Street Journal poll of FX forecasts to analyze how the group of forecasters form their expectations. One focus is whether forecasters build rational expectations. Furthermore, we analyze whether the group of forecasters can be regarded as homogeneous or...

Since the mid-1990s, large movements in stock prices have not only raised central bankers' and policy-makers' interest in their implications for real economic activity, but have also led to extensive empirical research in this field. While most of the studies have focussed on the United States...

This paper presents a novel theoretical and empirical approach to the analysis of long-run economic growth. It shows that most traditional theoretical models share the feature of pair-wise cointegration among the main variables. An augmented Kaldor model is proposed in contrast to the standard...

Using a fixed-effects panel data approach, FDI flows of 22 OECD countries are explained by gravity equations over the period 1991-2001. It is distinguished between all available observations, Intra-EU25 observations only, and observations not belonging to the EU25 area in order to control for...

We extend the protection for sale framework by modelling non tariff barriers. Explicitly introducing partial rent capturing leads to a testable specification that bridges the gap between the theoretical Grossman and Helpman (1994) model and its empirical implementation, where coverage ratios...

This paper studies the signalling effect of the consumption-wealth ratio (cay) on German stock returns via vector error correction models (VECMs). The effect of cay on U.S. stock returns has been recently confirmed by Lettau and Ludvigson with a two-stage method. In this paper, performances of...

In this study we forecast the term structure of FIBOR/EURIBOR swap rates by means of recursive vector autoregressive (VAR) models. In advance, a principal components analysis (PCA) is adopted to reduce the dimensionality of the term structure. To evaluate ex?ante forecasting performance for...

In this paper we examine changes on investment decisions induced by the introduction of the Euro. There are two potential sources of portfolio reallocation. First, the introduction of the Euro diminished exchange rate risks within the EMU region, which relieved European investors from currency...

This paper examines the link between a firm's owership of productive assets and its choice of foreign-market entry strategy. We find that, controlling for industry- and country-specific characteristics, the most productive firms (i.e., those owning the most assets) will enter through greenfield...

Empirical evidence suggests a sharp volatility decline of the growth in U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) in the mid-1980s. Using Bayesian methods, we analyze whether a volatility reduction can also be detected for the German GDP. Since statistical inference for volatility processes critically...