Prevailing explanations of the decline in real interest rates since the early 1980s are premised on the notion that real interest rates are driven by variations in desired saving and investment. But based on data stretching back to 1870 for 19 countries, our systematic analysis casts doubt on...

Prevailing explanations of persistently low interest rates appeal to a secular decline in the natural interest rate, or r-star, due to factors outside monetary policy's control. We propose informational feedback via learning as an alternative explanation for persistently low rates, where...

This paper assesses financial integration in Asia in terms of risk-sharing benefit versus financial-contagion cost. We construct a new measure of risk sharing based on a term structure model, which allows identification of realized stochastic discount factors. Risk sharing is low in Asia, and...

This paper introduces a dynamic coordination game with incomplete information defined by a state variable that evolves stochastically. Incomplete information enables us to use iterated dominance argument in order to resolve the indeterminacy issues. The key endogenous variable is the belief that...

Has financial globalisation compromised central banks' ability to manage domestic financial conditions? This paper summarises the results from our recent research, which tackles this question from the bond market perspective for both advanced and emerging market economies. Using an asset pricing...

I) House prices rose strongly in advanced economies during the pandemic, breaking with typical post-recession patterns. These developments support domestic demand in the short term but carry risks to the outlook if they reverse. II) Rapid economic recovery, fiscal support and high saving rates...

The effects of changes in wealth on consumption in Thailand are estimated, using a cross-sectional household survey conducted in 2010. It is found that consumption, after conditioning for income and household characteristics, is increasing in wealth, whether measured in terms of net worth or...

A model of imperfectly competitive banks is examined under asymmetric information about borrower quality. Greater bank competition and a lower risk-free rate raise the screening costs of lending, which can result in pooling Nash equilibria with credit booms. Such equilibria are characterised by...

This paper addresses the measurement issues of systemic risk in the Thai banking sector. The concept of conditional value-at-risk (CoVaR), due to Adrian and Brunnermeier (2008), was used to quantify the level of systemic risk and financial linkages among six major Thai commercial banks over the...

The impending change in the global economic and nancial landscape will have important implications for the making of monetary policy in Thailand. This paper highlights two key challenges and proposes steps that can help strengthen the existing in ation targeting (IT) framework. First, we...