In this paper, we propose a new Empirical Information Criterion (EIC) for model selection which penalizes the likelihood of the data by a function of the number of parameters in the model. It is designed to be used where there are a large number of time series to be forecast. However, a...

This paper evaluates the role of various volatility specifications, such as multiple stochastic volatility (SV) factors and jump components, in appropriate modeling of equity return distributions. We use estimation technology that facilitates non-nested model comparisons and use a long data set...

A problem encountered in, for instance, growth empirics is that the number of explanatory variables is large compared to the number of observations. This makes it infeasible to condition on all variables in order to determine the importance of a variable of interest. We prove identifying...

This paper investigates the time between transactions on financial markets. It is assumed that the interval between transactions is a random variable and the relationship between the probability to observe a transaction at each instant of time and the type of the previous trade is investigated....

This paper proposes a new test for structural instability in heterogeneous panels. The test builds on the seminal work of Andrews (2003) originally developed for time series. It is robust to non-normal, heteroskedastic and serially correlated errors, and allows for the number of post break...

This papers describes an estimator for a standard state-space model with coefficients generated by a random walk that is statistically superior to the Kalman filter as applied to this particular class of models. Two closely related estimators for the variances are introduced: A maximum...

This paper reviews some of the most popular policy evaluation methods in empirical microeconomics: social experiments, natural experiments, matching, instrumental variables, discontinuity design, and control functions. It discusses identification of traditionally used average parameters and more...

This paper develops and tests a new model of asymmetric information in the labour market involving employer learning. In the model, I provide theoretical conditions for the identification – based on the experience and tenure profiles of estimated returns to ability and education – of...

Models of the aggregate unemployment rate have traditionally been estimated from structural models of the labour market or in a linear single-equation framework. However, theory as well as evidence suggest that the unemployment rate is asymmetric and should be modelled in a non-linear framework....

This article shows how admission and enrollment processes affect the interpretation of simple validation studies of academic performance. In a competitive market for students, optimal behavior of admissions committees and applicants drives the simple correlation between test scores and...