This paper estimates the expectation-augmented Phillips curve, which explains inflation dynamics, in Korea. The phenomenon of low inflation in Korea has been going on for quite some time, in particular since 2012. During the Covid-19 crisis, due to low inflation expectations the operation of...

This paper analyses the results from a new monthly survey of consumers’ euro area inflation expectations before and during the pandemic. We find that consumers’ longterm euro area inflation expectations have remained elevated above the ECB’s inflation aim throughout the pandemic. Moreover,...

Do extreme events have a significant effect about textual sentiment? The purpose of this article is to highlight the need to correct the estimation of indicators of economic uncertainty. The indicators were constructed from textual data about the perspective of extreme events. For this purpose,...

We answer the question posed by the title by specifying and estimating a simple dynamic model of prices, wages, and short-run and long-run inflation expectations. The estimated model allows us to analyze the direct and indirect effects of product-market and labor-market shocks on prices and...

We examine "Forward Guidance Contracts", which make central bankers' utility contingent on the precision of interest-rate forecasts for some time. Such Forward Guidance Contracts are a exible commitment device and can improve economic performance when the economy is stuck in a liquidity trap....

This paper applies a yield curve model that separates expectations and volatility components of market yields on default-free bonds. Expected future riskless rates derived from the model are unbiased, reasonably accurate indicators of subsequent actual riskless rates for periods up to three...

Monetary policy rules have been considered as fundamental protection against inflation. However, empirical evidence for a correlation between rules and inflation is relatively weak. In this paper, we first discuss likely causes for this weak link and present the argument that monetary commitment...

Monetary policy rules have been considered as fundamental protection against inflation. However, empirical evidence for a correlation between rules and inflation is relatively weak. In this paper, we first discuss likely causes for this weak link and present the argument that monetary commitment...

We explore two issues triggered by the global financial crisis. First, in most advanced countries, output remains far below the pre-recession trend, suggesting hysteresis. Second, while inflation has decreased, it has decreased less than anticipated, suggesting a breakdown of the relation...