This study employs the panel convergence methodology developed by Phillips and Sul (2007) to explore the convergence dynamics of international equity markets. The analysis considers both country and industry effects. While traditional portfolio management strategies usually follow a top-down...

This paper analyzes the degree of convergence of financial development for a panel of 50 countries. We apply the methodology of Phillips and Sul (2007) to various financial development indicators to assess the existence of convergence clubs. We consider nine such indicators that various...

We investigate the dynamics of stochastic convergence of the original Euro Area countries for inflation rates, nominal interest rates, and real interest rates. We test for convergence relative to Germany, taken as the benchmark for core EU standards, using monthly data over the period January...

We implement several Bayesian and classical models to forecast employment for eight sectors of the US economy. In addition to standard vector-autoregressive and Bayesian vector autoregressive models, we also include the information content of 143 additional monthly series in some models. Several...

State and local governments have recently experienced severe budget problems. Many state legislatures and governors have cut spending or raised taxes. Such changes in fiscal structure may restore fiscal balance, but they can have adverse consequences on state and local economic growth. This...

This study assesses how fiscal policy affects the dynamics of asset markets, using Bayesian vector autoregressive models. We use sign restrictions to identify government revenue and government spending shocks, while controlling for generic business cycle and monetary policy shocks. In addition...

While the existing literature acknowledges the effect of banking structure on industrial growth as well as the effect of financial development on industrial growth and its volatility, we examine whether banking structure, given bank (financial) development, exerts any nontrivial effect on...

This study assesses how fiscal policy affects the dynamics of asset markets, using Bayesian vector autoregressive models. We use sign restrictions to identify government revenue and government spending shocks, while controlling for generic business cycle and monetary policy shocks. In addition...

The last two decades witnessed a dramatic transformation of how central banks operate. An increasing number of central banks now use inflation targeting as their monetary policy control mechanism. A series of papers attempt to measure the effectiveness of inflation targeting on economic...

This paper uses small set of variables-- real GDP, the inflation rate, and the short-term interest rate -- and a rich set of models -- athoeretical and theoretical, linear and nonlinear, as well as classical and Bayesian models -- to consider whether we could have predicted the recent downturn...