Using no arbitrage principle, we derive a relationship between the drift term of risk-neutral dynamics for instantaneous variance and the term structure of forward variance curve. We show that the forward variance curve can be derived from options market. Based on the variance term structure, we...

We construct a statistical model for term-structure of implied volatilities of currency options based on daily historical data for 13 currency pairs in a 19-month period. We examine the joint evolution of 1 month, 2 month, 3 month, 6 month and 1 year 50-delta options in all the currency pairs....

VIX futures are exchange-traded contracts on a future volatility index level (VIX) derived from a basket of SPX stock index options. The paper posits a stochastic variance model of VIX time evolution, and develops an expression for VIX futures. Free parameters are estimated from market data over...

In this paper we analyze CBOE VIX futures price time series data from Mar. 2004 to Feb. 2008. We derive a new pricing framework for VIX futures that is convenient to study variance term structure dynamics. Our main contribution to existing literature is the identification of the number of...

In this paper we empirically study the variance term structure using VIX futures market. We first derive a new pricing framework for VIX futures that is convenient to study variance term structure dynamics. We construct five models and use Kalman filter and Maximum Likelihood method for model...

We propose a unsupervised learning approach to construct latent factor model for cross sectional asset returns where firm characteristics instrument for the dynamic factor exposures. Firm characteristics are clustered with consideration to their prior economic content. Our method can also be...