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The completion of EMU, and banking union as its critical component, requires that certain taboos in the policy debate are brought out in the open. First, the Commission must stop pretending that Italian public debt is sustainable under current policies and shift from politically motivated...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012836105
This article outlines two general approaches to disentangle expected defaults and anticipated devaluations from distressed sovereign spreads. The first uses affine term structure models and uncovered interest rate parity to extract a schedule between risk-neutral devaluation odds and exchange...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012868618
sharp rise in bond yields, CDS, cross-correlation and spillover effects across bond markets of the Eurozone. Yield curves of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013055160
Greater financial integration between core and peripheral EMU members not only had an effect on both sets of countries but also spilled over beyond the euro area. Lower interest rates allowed peripheral countries to run bigger deficits, which inflated their economies by allowing credit booms....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013055510
The European sovereign debt crisis is characterized by the simultaneous surge in borrowing costs in the GIPS countries after 2008. We present a theory, which can account for the behavior of sovereign bond spreads in Southern Europe between 1998 and 2012. Our key theoretical argument is related...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013027003
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We examine the impact of eurozone membership on sovereign creditworthiness over the period 1996-2017. We find that: (a …) the ratings boost was significantly higher in the pre-crisis period (with countries in the periphery of the eurozone being … joining the eurozone, and lowered borrowing costs (as measured by CDS spreads) in line with the ratings boost …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013244814
Using loan-level data, we find that syndicated lending by European banks with sizeable balance sheet exposures to impaired sovereign debt was negatively affected after the start of the euro area sovereign debt crisis. We also observe a reallocation away from foreign (especially US) markets. The...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013079572
To compensate for the inflexibility of fixed exchange rates, the euro area needs flexibility through a system of orderly debt restructuring. With virtually no room for macroeconomic manoeuvring since the crisis onset, fiscal austerity has been the main instrument for achieving reductions in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009782183