in the next quarter. Our oil-response forecast strategy earns especially high returns in periods that follow large …

them. I find that negative management forecast surprises lead to a –5.9% abnormal return around the forecast and a 1 ….9% abnormal return and a –1.7% correction. The level of the stock market overreaction varies with the forecast and firm … characteristics, but the marginal impact remains the same: a 1% change in the stock market reaction around the forecast is associated …