The new generation of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models seems particularly suited for conducting scenario analysis. These models formalise the behaviour of economic agents on the basis of explicit micro-foundations. As a result, they appear less prone to the Lucas critique...

This paper analyzes the careers of 230 professional judges in the German labor court system. Judges who are promoted early for the first time – “fast starters” – are more likely to be promoted for the second time. Fast starters, however, do not achieve a second promotion earlier –...

This paper considers business cycle models with agents who are averse not only to risk, but also to ambiguity (Knightian uncertainty). Ambiguity aversion is described by recursive multiple priors preferences that capture agents' lack of confidence in probability assessments. While modeling...

This paper studies banks' motives for trading in interest rate derivatives. It uses data from annual reports and regulatory filings to measure major market participants' derivatives portfolios, as well as their non-derivative exposure to interest rate risk. Risk exposures with and without...