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, as it improves the forecast accuracy. Furthermore, consistency is time varying. Exploring this time variation, we provide …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014088086
We study the link between expected inflation and wages using novel panel data from German firms and employees. We find that pass-through - the percentage point change in wage growth given a one percentage point change in expected inflation - is small: 0.11-0.17 for firms and 0.03-0.07 for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015053872
We show within a New Keynesian model with experience-based learning (EBL) that heterogeneous expectations across age groups impair the ability of monetary policy to stabilise the economy. While experience effects on expectations reduce the transmission of monetary policy on inflation, they...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013227926
We study the link between expected inflation and wages using novel panel data from German firms and employees. We find that pass-through—the percentage point change in wage growth given a one percentage point change in expected inflation—is small: 0.11–0.17 for firms and 0.03–0.07 for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015061156
has been on surveys of professional forecasters and on market-based indicators.Regarding the anchoring of inflation … bring forecast gains when included in forecasting models and can also inform scenario and risk analysis in projection …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012626673
The purpose of this paper is to investigate the micro foundations of how non-experts' (or general public) form inflation expectations. Using a unique dataset we investigate the range of near rational inflation expectations. An important contribution to understanding how non-experts form their...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013098048
The purpose of the present paper is to study how households form inflation expectations. Using a novel survey-base dataset of Italian households' opinions of inflation we investigate two separate, but related, types of behavior: ‘inattentiveness' and ‘anchoring'. The present analysis extends...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013101452
This paper combines several administrative data and a survey experiment to evaluate the role of lifestyle changes in influencing inflation expectations. Using data from Nielsen's Homescan Panel, as well as a leading bank in Singapore, we first document that households are upgrading across...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012838979
Analysis of monthly disaggregated data from 1978 to 2016 on US household inflation expectations reveals that exposure … household personal characteristics, their perceptions of the effectiveness of government policies, their expectations of future …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012955413
Based on a new survey of German households, we investigate the role of information channels and lifetime experience for households' inflation expectations. We show that the types of information channels that households use to inform themselves about monetary policy are closely related to their...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012823151