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The cost of the COVID-19 crisis : lockdowns,macroeconomic expectations, and consumer spending

Coibion, Olivier; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Weber, Michael - 2020

We study how the differential timing of local lockdowns due to COVID-19 causally affects households’ spending and macroeconomic expectations at the local level using several waves of a customized survey with more than 10,000 respondents. About 50% of survey participants report income and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012219342

Forward guidance and household expectations

Coibion, Olivier; Georgarakos, Dimitris; Gorodnichenko, … - 2021 - This Draft: April 19th, 2021

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012631691

The importance of time series extrapolation for macroeconomic expectations

Roos, Michael W. M.; Schmidt, Ulrich - 2011

This paper presents a simple experiment on how laypeople form macroeconomic expectations. Subjects have to forecast …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009240694

Forward Guidance with Unanchored Expectations

Eusepi, Stefano; Gibbs, Christopher; Preston, Bruce - 2021

We study zero interest-rate policy in response to a large negative demand shock when long-run expectations can fall over time. Because falling expectations make monetary policy less effective by raising real interest rates, the optimal forward guidance policy makes large front-loaded promises to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013214045

Inflationary household uncertainty shocks

Ambrocio, Gene - 2022

I construct a novel measure of household uncertainty based on survey data for European countries. I show that household … uncertainty shocks do not universally behave like negative demand shocks. Notably, household uncertainty shocks are largely … average markups along with monetary policy play a role in the transmission of household uncertainty to inflation. These …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012818726

Households' probabilistic inflation expectations in high-inflation regimes

Becker, Christoph; Dürsch, Peter; Eife, Thomas A.; … - 2023

household surveys use a response scale that is tailored towards low-inflation regimes. Using data from a randomized controlled …Central bank surveys frequently elicit households’ probabilistic beliefs about future inflation. However, most …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014472800

The effect of question wording on reported expectations and perceptions of inflation

Bruin, Wändi Bruine de; Klaauw, Wilbert van der; … - 2010

surveys …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008657312

Pattern-Based Inflation Expectations

Rötheli, Tobias F. - 2017

than with standard surveys of expectations since we can retrospectively compute expectations for earlier historical times …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012974263

Contracts and Firms’ Inflation Expectations

Kumar, Saten; Wesselbaum, Dennis - 2021

We use novel survey data to study firms’ inventory contracts. We document facts about the usage of purchase and sale contracts. We find that firms purchase and sell inventory through three contractual arrangements: fixed price and quantity, fixed price only, and fixed quantity only. The former...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013211067

The Effect of Question Wording on Reported Expectations and Perceptions of Inflation

Bruine de Bruin, Wändi - 2010

Public expectations and perceptions of inflation may affect economic decisions, and have subsequent effects on actual inflation. The Michigan Survey of Consumers uses questions about “prices in general” to measure expected and perceived inflation. Median responses track official measure of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013144442