Latin American portfolio inflows show a strong tendency to revert to a natural level, KF*, over medium-run horizons. Deviations of actual flows from KF* provide policymakers with a real-time predictor of future flows, sudden stops and vulnerability to global shocks. Analysis of short-run...

We put forward the notion that capital flows--specifically, gross portfolio flows--fluctuate around some natural level. Our particular measure of the natural level of capital flows, denoted by KF*, is a theory-based time-varying supply-side factor, much like potential GDP is a theory based time...

We assess the development of local currency bond markets in emerging market economies (EMEs). Supported by policies and laws that helped to improve macroeconomic stability and creditor rights, many local currency EME bond markets have grown substantially over the past decade and have also...

We assess the extent to which a country's external capital structure can aid in mitigating the macroeconomic impact of oil price shocks. We study two Caribbean economies highly vulnerable to oil price shocks, an oil-importer (Jamaica) and an oil-exporter (Trinidad and Tobago). From a...

We analyze the effect of the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy on EME sovereign and corporate bond markets by focusing on two dimensions: the evolution of the structure (size and currency composition) of the bond markets and their allocations within the bond portfolios of US investors. Global...

Currency denomination is a prominent feature in the analysis of the structure of international bond markets, but is largely absent from analyses of cross-border investment in debt securities. This omission owes in part to the limitations of widely used datasets such as the IMF's CPIS data (on...

We analyze reallocations within the international bond portfolios of US investors. The most striking empirical observation is a steady increase in US investors' allocations toward emerging market local currency bonds, unabated by the global financial crisis and accelerating in the post-crisis...

"We assess the extent to which emerging economies have been able to attract global investors to their local currency bond markets. To do so, we first provide a sense of the playing field by examining the surge in the development of local currency bond markets over the past decade, as well as the...

We describe and assess two dimensions of the current state of bond market development in developing Asia: the role of bond markets in overall financial systems and a comparison of the salient features of bond market development in developing Asia and other regions. We highlight key drivers and...