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Tail and Center Rounding of Probabilistic Expectations in the Health and Retirement Study

Giustinelli, Pamela - 2018

A growing number of surveys elicit respondents' expectations for future events on a 0-100 scale of percent chance … Health and Retirement Study. We discover a tendency by about half of the respondents to provide more refined responses in the … find that rounding varies across question domains, which range from personal health to personal finances to macroeconomic …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012920364

Tail and center rounding of probabilistic expectations in the Health and Retirement Study

Giustinelli, Pamela; Manski, Charles F.; Molinari, Francesca - 2018

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011862648

Tail and center rounding of probabilistic expectations in the Health and Retirement Study

Giustinelli, Pamela; Manski, Charles F.; Molinari, Francesca - In: Journal of econometrics 231 (2022) 1, pp. 265-281

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013441985

The effects of expert selection, elicitation design, and R&D assumptions on experts' estimates of the future costs of photovoltaics

Verdlolini, Elena; Anadon, Laura Diaz; Lu, Jiaqi; … - 2015

Expert elicitations of future energy technology costs can improve energy policy design by explicitly characterizing … 65 experts, of the future costs of photovoltaics (PV) and evaluate the impact of expert and study characteristics on the … than do US experts. Higher R&D investment is associated with lower future costs. Rather than increasing confidence, high R …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010476209

Survey Measurement of Probabilistic Macroeconomic Expectations : Progress and Promise

Manski, Charles F. - 2017

Economists commonly suppose that persons have probabilistic expectations for uncertain events, yet empirical research measuring expectations was long rare. The inhibition against collection of expectations data has gradually lessened, generating a substantial body of recent evidence on the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012955948

Survey Experiments on Economic Expectations

Fuster, Andreas - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022

In this chapter, we discuss field experiments in surveys that are conducted with the purpose of learning about expectation formation and the link between expectations and behavior. We begin by reviewing the rationale for conducting experiments within surveys, rather than just relying on...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012938719