Which firms relied on commercial banks for credit and which firms did not at the onset of the Great Depression would seem to be an important question given the vast literature discussing banking distress in the United States during the 1930s. The question, however, has not been answered. This...

Credit scores are critical for allocating consumer debt in the United States, yet little evidence is available on their performance. We benchmark a widely used credit score against a machine learning model of consumer default and find significant misclassification of borrowers, especially those...

We document a change in the character and quality of Turkish economic growth with a turning point around 2007 and link this change to the reversal in the nature of economic institutions, which underwent a series of growth-enhancing reforms following Turkey's financial crisis in 2001, but then...

We introduce the possibility of direct punishment by specialized enforcers into a model of community enforcement. Specialized enforcers need to be given incentives to carry out costly punishments. Our main result shows that, when the specialized enforcement technology is sufficiently effective,...

The propagation of macroeconomic shocks through input-output and geographic networks can be a powerful driver of macroeconomic fluctuations. We first exposit that in the presence of Cobb-Douglas production functions and consumer preferences, there is a specific pattern of economic transmission...

This chapter develops a unified framework for the study of how network interactions can function as a mechanism for propagation and amplification of microeconomic shocks. The framework nests various classes of games over networks, models of macroeconomic risk originating from microeconomic...

We document that even though the normal distribution provides a good approximation to GDP fluctuations, it severely underpredicts "macroeconomic tail risks," that is, the frequency of large economic downturns. Using a multi-sector general equilibrium model, we show that the interplay of...

The Federal Reserve Act was the outcome of compromises among competing economic and political interests. Numerous studies examine how the act came together but largely take the makeup of Congress and the Administration as given rather than considering the unique circumstances that led to that...

Increases in "deaths of despair" have been hypothesized to provide an important source of the adverse mortality experiences of some groups at the beginning of the 21st century. This study examines this possibility and uncovers the following primary findings. First, mental health deteriorated...

Synthetic microdata - data retaining the structure of original microdata while replacing original values with modeled values for the sake of privacy - presents an opportunity to increase access to useful microdata for data users while meeting the privacy and confidentiality requirements for data...