We explore empirically models of aggregate fluctuations with two basic ingredients: agents form anticipations about the future based on noisy sources of information and these anticipations affect spending and output in the short run. Our objective is to separate fluctuations due to actual...

We develop a model of investment with financial constraints and use it to investigate the relation between investment and Tobin's q. Afirm is financed partly by insiders, who control its assets, and partly by outside investors. When their wealth is scarce, insiders earn a rate of return higher...

The arrival of new, unfamiliar, investment opportunities is often associated with exuberant movements in asset prices and real economic activity. During these episodes of high uncertainty, financial markets look at the real sector for signals about the profitability of the new investment...

Introduction to the theory of international trade and finance with applications to current policy issues. From the course home page: Course Description The course will help us understand what determines the flow of goods across countries, i.e. international trade, and what determines the flow of...

We argue that one reason why emerging economies borrow short term is that it is cheaperthan borrowing long term. This is especially the case during crises, as in these episodes therelative cost of long-term borrowing increases. We construct a unique database of sovereignbond prices, returns, and...