This paper evaluates a United Kingdom pilot study designed to test whether a means-tested conditional cash transfer paid to 16- to 18-year-olds for staying in full-time education is an effective way of reducing the proportion of school dropouts. The transfer’s impact is substantial: In the...

This paper decomposes the sources of risk to income that individuals face over their lifetimes. We distinguish productivity risk from employment risk and identify the components of each using the Survey of Income and Program Participation and the Panel Study of Income Dynamics. Estimates of...

We develop a dynamic discrete choice model of training choice, employment and wage growth, allowing for job mobility, in a world where wages depend on firm-worker matches, as well as experience and tenure and jobs take time to locate. We estimate this model on a large administrative panel data...

This paper develops and estimates a human capital model of wage growth based on learning by doing. Learning by doing rates are assumed to be heterogeneous and firms offer different career structures in terms of the rate of acquisition of firm specific human capital. The model is estimated using...

This paper examines changes in the distribution of wages using bounds to allow for the impact of non-random selection into work. We show that worst case bounds can be informative. However, since employment rates in the UK are often low they are not informative about changes in educational or...

We explore the role that economic incentives, particularly changes in wages at the bottom end of the wage distribution, play in determining crime rates. We use data on the police force areas of England and Wales between 1975 and 1996 and find (relative) falls in the wages of low-wage workers...

Moment conditions are derived for dynamic linear panel data models with linear individual specific effects in the mean and multiplicative individual effects in the conditional ARCH type variance function. The relation and correlation between the linear and multiplicative effects are...

This paper examines the impact of technological change on net job creation. Innovation (by a company or its rivals) can affect many dimensions of a firm's employment decision and we distinguish between three: changes due to higher output, changes due to shifting factor intensities and changes in...

This Paper exploits area-based piloting and age-related eligibility rules to identify treatment effects of a labour market program – the New Deal for Young People in the UK. A central focus is on substitution/displacement effects and on equilibrium wage effects. The programme includes...