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This paper proposes forward convergence as a model refinement scheme for linear rational expectations (LRE) models and an associated no-bubble condition as a solution selection criterion. We relate these two concepts to determinacy and characterize the complete set of economically relevant...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013101279
This paper argues against determinacy as a guide to interpret rational expectations solutions, using an example in which a determinate solution exists but differs sharply in dynamic behavior from that implied by the model considered on a sector-by-sector basis.
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This paper proposes forward convergence as a model refinement scheme for linear rational expectations (LRE) models and an associated no-bubble condition as a solution selection criterion. We relate these two concepts to determinacy and characterize the complete set of economically relevant...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010821907
This article complements the structural New-Keynesian macro framework with a no-arbitrage affine term structure model. Whereas our methodology is general, we focus on an extended macro-model with an unobservable time-varying inflation target and the natural rate of output which are filtered from...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012467343
We estimate a New-Keynesian macro model accommodating regime-switching behavior in monetary policy and in macro shocks. Key to our estimation strategy is the use of survey-based expectations for inflation and output. We identify accommodating monetary policy before 1980, with activist monetary...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012461567