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We use textual analysis of earnings conference calls held by listed firms around the world to measure the amount of risk managers and investors at each firm associate with each country at each point in time. Flexibly aggregating this firm-country-quarter-level data allows us to systematically...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012696435
It is surprisingly difficult to find economic variables that strongly co-move with exchange rates, a phenomenon codified in a large literature on "exchange rate disconnect." We demonstrate that a variety of common proxies for global risk appetite, which did not co-move with exchange rates prior...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012479994
The modern notion of an international currency involves use in areas of international finance and trade that extend well beyond central banks' coffers. In addition to their important roles as foreign exchange reserves, international currencies are most frequently used to denominate corporate and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012481057
Global firms finance themselves through foreign subsidiaries, often shell companies in tax havens, which obscures their nationality in aggregate statistics. We associate the universe of traded securities with their issuer's ultimate parent and restate bilateral investment positions to better...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012482036
The covered interest rate parity (CIP) condition is a fundamental arbitrage relationship in international finance. In this chapter, we review its breakdown during the Global Financial Crisis and its continued failure in the subsequent decade. We review how to measure CIP deviations, discuss the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012533326
We establish that global portfolios are driven by an often neglected aspect: the currency of denomination of assets. Using a dataset of $27 trillion in security-level investment positions, we demonstrate that investor holdings are biased toward their own currencies to such an extent that each...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012453047
We quantify the difference in the convenience yield of U.S. Treasuries and the bonds of near default-free sovereigns by measuring the gap between the FX swap-implied dollar yield paid by foreign governments and the U.S. Treasury dollar yield. We call this wedge the "U.S. Treasury Premium." We...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012453952
Nominal debt provides consumption-smoothing benefits if it can be inflated away during recessions. However, we document empirically that countries with more countercyclical inflation, where nominal debt provides better consumption-smoothing, issue more foreign-currency debt. We propose that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012456087
We estimate the causal effect of sovereign default on the equity returns of Argentine firms. We identify this effect by exploiting changes in the probability of Argentine sovereign default induced by legal rulings in the case of Republic of Argentina v. NML Capital. We find that a 10% increase...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012456405
We assess the pattern of Euro Area financial integration adjusting for the role of "onshore offshore financial centers" (OOFCs) within the Euro Area. The OOFCs of Luxembourg, Ireland, and the Netherlands serve dual roles as both hubs of investment fund intermediation and centers of securities...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014512129