We document that even though the normal distribution provides a good approximation to GDP fluctuations, it severely underpredicts "macroeconomic tail risks," that is, the frequency of large economic downturns. Using a multi-sector general equilibrium model, we show that the interplay of...

The Federal Reserve Act was the outcome of compromises among competing economic and political interests. Numerous studies examine how the act came together but largely take the makeup of Congress and the Administration as given rather than considering the unique circumstances that led to that...

Increases in "deaths of despair" have been hypothesized to provide an important source of the adverse mortality experiences of some groups at the beginning of the 21st century. This study examines this possibility and uncovers the following primary findings. First, mental health deteriorated...

Synthetic microdata - data retaining the structure of original microdata while replacing original values with modeled values for the sake of privacy - presents an opportunity to increase access to useful microdata for data users while meeting the privacy and confidentiality requirements for data...

This paper examines the profound challenges that transformative advances in AI towards Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) will pose for economists and economic policymakers. I examine how the Age of AI will revolutionize the basic structure of our economies by diminishing the role of labor,...

This paper measures parents' beliefs about school and peer quality, how information about each affects school choices, and how social interactions mediate these effects. Parents underestimate school quality and overestimate peer quality. Cross-randomized school and peer quality information...

Political leaders make policy choices which are often hard to explain via institutions. We use the behavior of Colombian paramilitary groups as an environment to study non-institutional sources of variation in how public good provision and violence are combined to control populations. We...