Alfred Cowles' (1934) test of the Dow Theory apparently provided strong evidence against the ability of Wall Street's most famous chartist to forecast the stock market. In this paper we review Cowles' evidence and find that it supports the contrary conclusion - that the Dow Theory, as applied by...

We find evidence that is consistent with the hypothesis that daily mutual fund flows may be instruments for investor sentiment about the stock market. We use this finding to construct a new index of investor sentiment, and validate this index using data from both the United States and Japan. In...

We find evidence that is consistent with the hypothesis that daily mutual fund flows may be instruments for investor sentiment about the stock market. We use this finding to construct a new index of investor sentiment, and validate this index using data from both the United States and Japan. In...

We find evidence that is consistent with the hypothesis that daily mutual fund flows may be instruments for investor sentiment about the stock market. We use this finding to construct a new index of investor sentiment, and validate this index using data from both the United States and Japan. In...

Investors in hedge funds and commodity trading advisors [CTA s] are naturally concerned with risk as well as return. In this paper, we investigate risk of hedge funds and CTA s in light of managerial career concerns. We find an association between past performance and risk levels consistent with...

Empirical analysis of rates of return in Finance implicitly condition on the security surviving into the sample. We investigate the implications of such conditioning on the time series of rates of return. In general this conditioning induces a spurious relationship between observed return and...

We propose a new empirical approach to determination of mutual fund styles. This approach is simple to apply, yet it captures nonlinear patterns of returns that result from virtually all active portfolio management styles. We find that the largest equity fund category, acirc;not;SGrowthacirc;not;?...

Investors in hedge funds and commodity trading advisors [CTA s] are naturally concerned with risk as well as return. In this paper, we investigate risk of hedge funds and CTA s in light of managerial career concerns. We find an association between past performance and risk levels consistent with...

In this paper, we find that existing classifications do a poor job at forecasting differences in future performance. We propose a different method for grouping mutual funds which is relatively impervious to strategic quot;gamingquot; of benchmarks. In particular, it captures active portfolio...