This paper analyzes the impact of exchange rate fluctuations when they are only partially passed through to consumer prices. We show that an exchange rate depreciation does not necessarily have a beggar-thy-neighbor effect and may in fact have an opposite, or beggar-thyself, effect. The...

This paper provides a microstructural explanation for the success of two familiar predictions from technical analysis: 1) trends tend to be reversed at predictable support and resistance levels, and 2) trends gain momentum once predictable support and resistance levels are crossed. ; The...

This paper studies an overlapping generations economy with capital where limited communication and stochastic relocation create an endogenous transactions role for fiat money. We assume a production function with a knowledge externality (Romer-style) that nests economies with endogenous growth...

Self-fulfilling expectations are commonly believed to play an important role in the transmission of currency crises across countries. However, existing models that use multiple equilibria to illustrate the importance of such expectations have many undesirable features. This paper presents a new...

When risk-factor loadings are time-varying and unobservable, investors are forced to form beliefs about the levels of their loadings. The learning process involved in forming these beliefs has normative implications for asset-pricing tests. This paper develops an equilibrium model of learning...

Economists, business analysts, and policymakers have all focused considerable attention on U.S. productivity growth in recent years. This paper presents a broad overview of productivity

Lack of commitment in monetary policy leads to the well known Barro-Gordon inflation bias. In this paper, we argue that two phenomena associated with the time inconsistency problem have been overlooked in the exchange rate debate. We show that, absent commitment, independent monetary policy can...

Border prices of traded goods are highly sensitive to exchange rates; however, the consumer price index (CPI) and the retail prices of goods that make up the CPI are more stable. This paper decomposes the sources of this price stability for twenty-one OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation...

The Milwaukee voucher program, as implemented in 1990, allowed only nonsectarian private schools to participate in the program. However, following a Wisconsin Supreme Court ruling, the program was expanded to include religious private schools in 1998. This second phase of the voucher program led...

We use daily data on bank reserves and overnight interest rates to document a striking pattern in the high-frequency behavior of the U.S. market for federal funds: depository institutions tend to hold more reserves during the last few days of each reserve maintenance period, when the opportunity...