Empirical evidence shows that changes in aggregate labor income and stock market returns exhibit only weak correlation at short horizons. As we document below, however, this correlation increases substantially at longer horizons, which provides at least suggestive evidence that stock returns and...

We identify a class of term structure models possessing a generalized affine-structure that significantly extends the class studied by Duffie, Pan, and Singleton (2000) and Chacko and Das (2002). This class of models, which includes bothinfinite-state-variable (i.e., HJM-type) and...

Previous research (e.g., Lando (1998), Duffie, Schroder and Skiadas (1996), Duffie and Singleton (1999)) has shown that under a suitable no-jump condition, the price of a defaultable security is equal to its risk-neutral expected discounted cash flows if a modified discount rate is introduced to...

Several recent papers document significant relative mis-pricings between caps and swaptions using traditional multi-factor models of the term structure. Below we argue that these mis-pricings are due to the severe restrictions that traditional models place on the joint evolution of the i) term...

Most models of the term structure are restrictive in that they assume the bond market forms a complete market. That is, they assume all sources of risk affecting fixed income derivatives can be completely hedged by a portfolio consisting solely of bonds. Below, we present empirical evidence...

We propose a very fast and accurate algorithm for pricing swaptions when the underlying term structure dynamics are affine. The efficiency of the algorithm stems from the fact that the moments of the underlying asset (i.e., a coupon bond) possess simple closed-form solutions. These moments...

Most term structure models with stochastic volatility are restrictive in that they assume the risk in derivative securities can be perfectly hedged by a portfolio consisting solely of bonds. Below, we demonstrate that this prediction fails in practice. In particular, we find that the changes in...

Using straight industrial bonds with quoted prices, we investigate the determinants of credit spread changes. We find the variables that should in theory determine credit spread changes in fact have limited explanatory power. Further, the residuals from this first-pass regression are highly...

In contrast to the empirical findings of Helwege and Turner (1998), existing structural models of default predict that the term structure of credit spreads is downward sloping for speculative-grade debt. We demonstrate that this prediction is a consequence of the assumption that the default...

We propose a tractable equilibrium model for pricing defaultable bonds that are subject to contagion risk. Contagion arises because agents with 'fragile beliefs' are uncertain about both the underlying state of the economy and the posterior probabilities associated with these states. As such,...