Local asymptotic power advantages are available for testing the null hypothesis that the slope coefficient is zero in regressions of y(t+k)-y(t) on x(t) for k 1 where the x(t) and the change in y(t) are I(0) series. The advantages of these long-horizon regression tests accrue in a linear...

Factor analysis performed on a panel of 23 nominal exchange rates from January 1999 to December 2010 yields three common factors. This paper identifies the euro/dollar, Swiss-franc/dollar and yen/dollar exchange rates as empirical counterparts to these common factors. These empirical factors...

When central banks set nominal interest rates according to an interest rate reaction function, such as the Taylor rule, and the exchange rate is priced by uncovered interest parity, the real exchange rate is determined by expected inflation differentials and output gap differentials. In this...

Three potential sources of bias present complications for estimating the half-life of purchasing power parity deviations from panel data. They are the bias associated with inapproiate aggregation across heterogeneous coefficients, time aggregation of commodity prices, and downward bias in...

Using recently developed model selection procedures, we determine that exchange rate returns are driven by a two-factor model. We identify them as a dollar factor and a euro factor. Exchange rates are thus driven by global, US, and Euro-zone stochastic discount factors. The identified factors...

We propose an econometric procedure for obtaining de facto exchange rate regime classifications which we apply to study the relationship between exchange rate regimes and economic growth. Our classification method models the de jure regimes as outcomes of a multinomial logit choice problem...

We study international currency risk in a two-country dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model under incomplete markets. The underlying sources of risk are direct shocks to productivity growth, shocks to a long-run risk component of productivity growth, shocks to a stochastic volatility...