This paper presents a model of exchange rate determination in which the forward premium anomaly emerges as the result of unanticipated central bank interventions in the foreign exchange market. Deviations from uncovered interest parity (UIP) therefore represent neither unexploited profit...

Three potential sources of bias present complications for estimating the half-life of purchasing power parity deviations from panel data. They are the bias associated with inapproiate aggregation across heterogeneous coefficients, time aggregation of commodity prices, and downward bias in...

We study international currency risk in a two-country dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model under incomplete markets. The underlying sources of risk are direct shocks to productivity growth, shocks to a long-run risk component of productivity growth, shocks to a stochastic volatility...

Can standard business-cycle methodology be applied to China? In this chapter, we address this question by examining the macroeconomic time series and identifying dimensions in which China differs from economies (such as Canada and the U.S.) that are typically the subject of business-cycle...

We decompose the response of aggregate consumption to monetary policy shocks into contributions by households at different stages of the life cycle. This decomposition finds that older households have a higher consumption response than younger households. Amongst older households, the...

We study the cross-sectional variation of carry-trade-generated currency excess returns in terms of their exposure to global macroeconomic fundamental risk. The risk factor is the cross-country high-minus-low conditional skewness of the unemployment rate gap. It gives a measure of global...

Using recently developed model selection procedures, we determine that exchange rate returns are driven by a two-factor model. We identify them as a dollar factor and a euro factor. Exchange rates are thus driven by global, US, and Euro-zone stochastic discount factors. The identified factors...

The Euler equations derived from a broad range of intertemporal asset pricing models, together with the first two unconditional moments of asset returns, imply a lower bound on the volatility of the intertemporal marginal rate of substitution. We develop and implement statistical tests of these...