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the assumptions that interest rates remain constant over the forecast horizon, follow a path as expected by market … expectations yielding the highest forecast accuracy to conditioning on constant interest rates yielding the lowest. Yet, when …
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We develop and apply a procedure to test the welfare implications of a beauty and non-beauty contest based on survey forecasts of interest rates and yields in a large country sample over an extended period of time. In most countries, interest rate forecasts are unbiased and consistent with both...
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