This paper develops and estimates a model of the time at which market participants expected the French franc to be devalued relative to the German deutschemark during the early years of the European Monetary System. The model assumes that the expected time of exchange rate realignment is...

This paper examines South Korea's macroeconomic performance and experience with external debt during 1960-1986. Most of Korea's debt was accumulated during three periods: 1966-69, 1974-75 and 1979-81. Each involved an initial phase of economic difficulty and an slow-down in growth, followed by...

According to the U.S. external accounts, U.S. investors earn a significantly higher rate of return on their foreign investments than foreigners earn in the United States. This continued strong performance has produced a positive net investment income balance despite the deterioration in the U.S....

We compare the recent economic performances of China and India using a simple growth accounting framework that produces estimates of the contribution of labor, capital, education, and total factor productivity for the three sectors of agriculture, industry, and services as well as for the...

This paper empirically examines India's economic growth experience during 1960-2004, focusing on the post 1973 acceleration. Careful attention is paid to data quality. The analysis focuses on two unusual dimensions of India's experience -- the concentration of growth in services production, and...

Real exchange rate (RER) misalignment is now a standard concept in international macroeconomic theory and policy. However, there is neither a consensus indicator of misalignment, nor an agreed upon methodology for constructing such an indicator. This paper constructs an indicator of RER...

History provides us with many examples of multiple country fixed exchange rate regimes that have eventually fallen apart. In light of these failures, why has the EMS been so successful in stabilizing exchange rates among members, and in expanding its membership? This paper argues that one key...

During 1980-1986, South Korea went from being the world's fourth largest debtor country, in the midst of an economic crisis, to a model of successful adjustment, with high growth rates and a current account surplus. This paper summarizes the findings of an in depth analysis of Korea's...

For dozens of developing countries, the financial upheavals of the 1980s have set back economic development by a decade or more. Poverty in those countries has intensified as they struggle under the burden of an enormous external debt. In 1988, more than six years after the onset of the crisis,...