In this paper I use a large multi-country data set to analyze the determinants of abrupt and large "current account reversals." The results from a variance-component probit model indicate that the probability of experiencing a major current account reversal is positively affected by larger...

The U.S. dollar has served as the key currency of the international economic/financial system for over fifty years. This study assesses the proposition that the series of U.S. current-account deficits over the last twenty years will shortly exhaust the capability of the dollar to continue as the...

This paper proposes an integrated framework to analyze jointly two key issues: the emergence of global imbalances and the precautionary motive for accumulating reserves. Standard models of general equilibrium would predict modest current account surpluses in the emerging markets if they face...