Supply shocks played an important role in macroeconomic fluctuations during the 1970's. Supply shocks are also increasingly important in Keynesian and neo-classical models of the business cycle. This paper is a short survey of these theoretical models. It also discusses the history of supply...

A firm may acquire additional caoital input by purchasing new capital or by increasing the utilization of its current capital. The margin between capital accumulation and capital utilization is studied in a model of dynamic factor demand where the firm chooses capital, labor, and their rates of...

A model of the dynamically interrelated demand for capital and labor is specified and estimated. The estimates are of the first-order conditions of the firm's problem rather than of the closed-form decision rules. This use of the first-order conditions allows a random rate of return and a...

Romer and Romer (1989,1990,1992) identify dates where the Federal Reserve appears to have shifted its policy towards reducing the rate of inflation. This paper examines the economic context that drives this decision. It finds that the Fed appears to weigh the outlook for unemployment as well as...

Until recently, economists widely believed that economic activity had become less variable in the United States following the end of World War II. Challenging this belief, new research suggests that key historical time series are spuriously volatile, a finding that is highly controversial. Data...

Non-competitive conduct can be assessed by estimating the size of the markup or Lerner index achieved in a market. The markup implies a price elasticity of demand faced by the representative firm. For a given markup, non-competitive conduct is greater the more elastic is the market elasticity of...

This paper uses stochastic simulation and my U.S. econometric model to examine the optimal choice of monetary policy instruments. Are the variances, covariances, and parameters in the model such as to favor one instrument over the other, in particular the interest rate over the money supply? The...

There has been much recent discussion about the ultimate sources of macroeconomic variability. A number of authors attribute most of this variability to only a few sources, sometimes only one. Although there may be only a few important sources, this is far from obvious, since economies seem...

One of the current questions in the literature on the demand for money is whether the adjustment of actual to desired money holdings is in nominal or real terms. This paper describes a simple procedure than can be used to test the nominal against the real hypothesis. The test is carried out for...

Since Meese and Rogoff's (1983) results, the view has become fairly widespread that structural models of exchange rates are not very good. There is, however, somewhat of a dichotomy in the literature between those who deal with small models, where the focus is almost exclusively on exchange...